The Big Story

Quick Take:

Median purchase price continues to tick up, increasing by 2.75% on a year-over-year basis nationwide.
The average 30-year mortgage rate continues to slowly fall, reaching 6.63% in the month of March.
The number of sales has declined slightly, while inventory skyrocketed on a year-over-year basis.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.

*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Inventories levels explode while existing home sales decline slightly

Although we’re still at the point in the season where inventories are supposed to build, they have increased by nearly 20% on a year-over-year basis, from 1,110,000 to 1,330,000, showing that people are hesitant to purchase a new home. Additionally, while inventories have been increasing, the number of existing homes being sold has decreased slightly on a year-over-year basis, with March 2025 numbers coming in at 4,020,000, which is 2.43% lower than where they were last year. Across the country, people are becoming more uncertain of whether or not they should move to a new home, and that is very clearly showing!

This data is just for March though; it will be important to pay attention to how the market reacted to the beginning of the trade war when April’s numbers come out in a couple of weeks. While it’s easy to see how things like the stock market and bond market react to big newsworthy events like this, real estate is incredibly illiquid, so it takes some time for things to play out!

As you might have expected, there was a considerable increase in the number of listings that have hit the market too. For a few months in a row we have seen high single/low double-digit percentage growths in the number of new listings hitting the market in the US. This is likely due to the fact that the people who were holding out for the return of lower interest rates are losing hope, and listing their homes anyway.

On the bright side, mortgage rates have continued their slow descent, with the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage in March coming in at around 6.63%, down roughly a quarter point from the year prior. As you might expect, the median monthly P&I payment ticked down slightly, and the median sale price ticked up slightly to match this move.

Although mortgage rates have come down a bit, it’s important to remember that the biggest drivers behind mortgage rates are, of course, the 10-year treasury and the federal funds rate. In the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed has decided to keep the federal funds rate in line with where it’s been over the past few months, despite many Americans feeling the effects of the trade war on their wallets.

As we have discussed in prior months, the Fed is in no rush to lower interest rates anytime soon. However, they do see a not-so-distant future where rates are a good bit lower. When you combine this with the fact that inventories are building at a rapid rate, and the number of units being sold has fallen slightly, this could represent a fantastic buying opportunity!

Ultimately though, this is just what we’re seeing at a national level. As we all know, real estate is an incredibly localized industry, so knowing what’s going on in your own market is pivotal. Below is our local lowdown, that outlines everything you need to know about what’s happening around you in your neighborhood and surrounding areas!

Big Story Data

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Bay Area real estate markets show mixed trends in April, with some areas seeing price declines while others maintain growth.
Inventory dynamics vary dramatically by region, with East Bay seeing substantial increases (~43%) while San Francisco continues to struggle with persistent shortages.
The single-family home market remains largely a seller's market across most Bay Area regions, while the condo market generally favors buyers with higher months of supply.
Despite varying inventory levels, homes are still selling relatively quickly throughout the Bay Area, with particularly fast movement in Silicon Valley (8-15 days).

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

What’s Moving: Sold Homes & Upcoming Listings in SF

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Despite fewer listings hitting the market, median sales prices remain roughly flat

As of right now, median sale prices throughout the North Bay are mostly flat, with single-family homes in Sonoma and Marin Counties experiencing a 0.59% and 2.93% year-over-year increase. Whereas, single-family homes in Solano and Napa Counties experienced a year-over-year decrease of 0.41% and 0.52%, respectively. It’ll be important to keep an eye on the trends that we see in median sale price and its relation to the number of active listings over the course of the next few months, as we’re certainly going through some unprecedented economic events.

Inventory levels remain lower than they were last year

Unfortunately, over the course of the past month, we didn’t see many new listings hitting the market, causing us to see a month-over-month drop in the total number of active listings on the market. In the month of April, we saw a 16.61% decrease in active listings on a year-over-year basis, and a 15.87% decrease on a month-over-month basis, which is quite incredible. This drop in active listings can largely be attributed to the fact that we saw nearly 30% fewer listings hitting the market in April, when compared to last year. At the same time, the number of listings that were sold stayed roughly flat, decreasing by just 1.41%. At this point in time, we’re going to need to see a large bump in new listings to get the market back on track for inventory growth.

The median listing is spending slightly more time on the market than it did last year

When you hear that there are fewer listings hitting the market and fewer active listings overall, while demand remains roughly the same, you might assume that properties are being snapped up at breakneck speed. In the case of the North Bay in April, that assumption would be wrong though. The average listing is spending a few days longer on the market than it was around this time last year. However, we wouldn’t be surprised to see listings getting snapped up more quickly over the course of the next few months, if the current trends in inventory persist.

Napa remains a buyer's market, whereas Marin, Solano, and Sonoma Counties favor the seller

The real estate market in California has historically averaged around three months' worth of inventory on the market at a given time. This means that whenever inventory levels drop below three months' worth of supply, an area is in a seller’s market. On the flip side, if inventory levels are above three months' worth of supply, an area is in a buyers’ market.

In the month of April, we saw some considerable changes in terms of the number of months' worth of supply on the market. There were 6.2 months of supply on the market in Napa, making it a buyer's market. Whereas there were 2.6 months and 2.2 months of supply on the market in Marin and Solano Counties, respectively, making them seller's markets. Lastly, although Sonoma County saw a considerable swing in inventories, it’s fairly balanced at this point, with 3.1 months of supply on the market.