CharlieBrownSF MarketTracker – April 2025

Charlie Brown and team continue to prioritize client service while ensuring safety. Mortgage rates slightly rose to 6.62%, yet median sale prices and affordability improved: median monthly principal and interest payments fell by over $100 year-over-year. Home sales remained steady, while inventory increased, giving buyers more options.

A 10% rise in new listings suggests sellers are accepting that low mortgage rates aren’t returning soon. Buyers benefit from slight market shifts, although the Federal Reserve remains firm on current rates with no major cuts anticipated.

Locally, San Francisco's single-family homes maintain strong value, with prices increasing 6.63% over four years, while condos dropped 12.52%. Single-family homes are selling at 114.7% of their original asking price — a level not seen since mid-2022. Inventory remains a major challenge; sold listings surpass new listings, tightening supply.

The single-family market favors sellers with only 1.5 months of supply, whereas the condo market favors buyers with 3.7 months of supply. Overall, single-family homes remain a hot commodity, while condo buyers can find opportunities in a slightly softer market.

In the April 2025 MarketTracker by CharlieBrownSF, the real estate market shows a blend of resilience and evolving trends both nationally and locally. Nationally, mortgage rates have slightly risen to 6.62%, yet median monthly principal and interest payments have dropped by over $100 year-over-year, offering improved affordability even amid higher home prices. While home sales have remained relatively stagnant, the inventory has grown, giving buyers more choices and slightly shifting leverage in their favor. Sellers are increasingly accepting that lower mortgage rates may not return soon, prompting more listings.

Locally, the Bay Area housing market displays mixed signals. Single-family homes continue to dominate, keeping most areas firmly in a seller’s market, especially in Silicon Valley and San Francisco. In contrast, condos present a buyer’s market across the region. Inventory levels are growing in Silicon Valley and the East Bay, while San Francisco and the North Bay struggle with shortages. Homes in Silicon Valley sell extremely quickly, often within 8-16 days, and San Francisco single-family homes are achieving above asking prices. Meanwhile, the East Bay shows cooling trends, with modest year-over-year price declines but healthy monthly gains. Overall, despite economic uncertainty and Fed policies remaining steady, the Bay Area market shows strength, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers depending on property type and location.

MarketTracker Silicon Valley – April 2025
In the latest MarketTracker, Charlie Brown reports a dynamic real estate landscape. Nationally, mortgage rates rose slightly to 6.62%, yet median monthly P&I payments fell by over $100 compared to last year, offering some financial relief to buyers. Inventory has notably increased, with over 10% more listings added in March 2025 than a year prior, suggesting a slow shift in market power from sellers to buyers. Locally, Silicon Valley remains strong, with home prices continuing to rise: San Mateo (+3.75%), Santa Cruz (+7.27%), and Santa Clara (+11.58%) year-over-year. Despite the surge in inventory — single-family homes saw a 40.05% increase — buyer demand remains robust, with homes in Santa Clara and San Mateo selling in just 8-10 days on average. While single-family homes remain a hot commodity, the condo market is more balanced, offering better opportunities for buyers. Overall, Silicon Valley real estate continues to present excellent investment opportunities even amid shifting national trends.

Mortgage rates have continued their gradual upward trend, with the average 30-year fixed rate sitting at 6.62% as of April 10, according to Freddie Mac. Despite the rising rates, the median sale price of a home in the U.S. has also increased, contributing to ongoing affordability challenges across the nation. However, there’s a silver lining: the median monthly principal and interest (P&I) payment has decreased by over $100 year-over-year, signaling potential relief for homeowners—possibly due to refinancing when rates momentarily dipped.

Home sales have remained relatively stagnant compared to last year, with February 2025 seeing 4.26 million sales, a modest dip from 4.38 million in February 2024. The real shift has been in inventory, which has grown significantly. Over 1.24 million homes were on the market in February, up from 1.06 million the previous year, giving buyers more options and increasing the average time listings remain active.

There’s also been a 10% increase in new listings in March compared to the same period last year. This suggests that sellers are starting to adjust their expectations—many are no longer holding out for lower mortgage rates, as the Federal Reserve has indicated no major rate cuts are expected soon. The Fed has opted to maintain the federal funds rate and continues to reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities, reinforcing the current rate environment.

The combination of increasing inventory, stable but high rates, and slight relief in monthly mortgage costs could be a sign of power beginning to shift from sellers to buyers, though real estate remains highly local in nature.

April 2025 Market Overview
Nationally, mortgage rates rose to 6.62%, but median monthly principal & interest payments dropped by over $100 year-over-year, offering slight affordability relief. Home sales remained stable with a dip in sales but an increase in inventory and listings—giving buyers more options. Sellers are increasingly listing homes, accepting that low mortgage rates won’t return soon.

Locally in the North Bay, median home prices held steady, with Marin County seeing a 9.32% drop and Napa a 10.4% gain YoY. Inventory has declined sharply, with a 14.28% MoM drop and nearly 21% fewer new listings YoY in March. Despite this, homes in Sonoma and Solano are sitting ~15% longer on the market, while Napa homes are selling faster.

Market dynamics vary: Sonoma, Marin, and Solano have entered a seller’s market with inventory below 3 months. Napa remains a buyer’s market, holding 5.6 months of supply. The data suggests an upcoming shift as low supply could spark bidding wars and push prices up in the coming months.

MarketTracker San Francisco – March 2025

The March 2025 MarketTracker from Charlie Brown provides an in-depth analysis of the real estate market at both national and local levels. Nationally, affordability remains a challenge despite slightly lower interest rates. While new home listings increased by 4.21% year-over-year in February, home prices and mortgage rates continue to make homeownership difficult. Inventory levels are gradually improving, with a 16.83% rise in active listings compared to last year, offering more options for buyers.

Locally, San Francisco’s real estate market faces its own unique challenges. Inventory remains critically low, especially for single-family homes, which saw a 15.87% decline in active listings year-over-year. This scarcity has led to record-high sale prices, with single-family homes selling at 113.3% of their listing price. In contrast, the condo market is more balanced, with prices remaining stable and buyers having more negotiating power. The city's real estate landscape remains divided—while single-family homes are in a strong seller’s market, the condo sector leans toward a buyer’s market.

Despite these trends, opportunities exist for both buyers and sellers. Those looking to make a move in the market are encouraged to seek expert guidance.

East Bay Real Estate Market Update – March 2025

The real estate market continues to evolve, with affordability remaining a nationwide challenge despite a slight drop in mortgage rates. Home prices have held steady, making it difficult for first-time buyers to enter the market. However, new inventory is gradually increasing, with a 4.21% rise in new listings nationwide and a 40% surge in East Bay listings compared to last year.

Locally, East Bay home prices remain stable due to this inventory growth. While single-family home prices have plateaued, condo prices have declined, with Contra Costa County seeing a 5.66% drop and Alameda County experiencing a 9.77% decrease.

Despite rising inventory, homes continue to sell quickly. The East Bay remains a seller’s market, with single-family homes averaging just 1.6–1.8 months of supply, while condos are more balanced at 2.8–3.5 months.

Buyers now have more options, and while top-tier properties still attract bidding wars, deals may be found on listings that linger. Stay informed about market trends to make the best real estate decisions.

North Bay Real Estate Market Update – March 2025

The North Bay housing market remains dynamic, with shifts in inventory, pricing, and demand shaping the landscape. March 2025 saw moderate price increases across key counties, reflecting a balanced market between buyers and sellers. While mortgage rates continue to impact affordability, demand for well-priced homes remains steady.

Key Highlights:
📌 Price Trends – Median home prices in Sonoma, Marin, and Napa counties saw slight increases, driven by limited supply and strong buyer interest.
📌 Inventory Levels – While new listings have emerged, overall housing stock remains tight, making competition strong for desirable properties.
📌 Market Activity – Homes continue to sell at a steady pace, with well-priced listings receiving multiple offers, especially in sought-after areas.
📌 Buyer & Seller Insights – Sellers benefit from strategic pricing, while buyers should be prepared to act quickly in this competitive market.

The Silicon Valley real estate market remains dynamic as of March 2025, showcasing trends that both buyers and sellers should monitor closely. Home prices continue to demonstrate resilience despite economic fluctuations, with median sales prices reflecting steady demand. Inventory levels have slightly increased, offering more options for buyers, while competition remains strong in key neighborhoods.

Mortgage rates continue to be a critical factor influencing buyer behavior, with recent shifts affecting affordability. While some buyers are adapting to higher rates, others are waiting for potential adjustments in financial policies. Meanwhile, sellers are leveraging strategic pricing and home improvements to attract competitive offers in a market that values move-in-ready properties.

New developments and infrastructure projects are shaping future growth, with tech sector expansions playing a pivotal role in housing demand. Rental markets also show notable activity, with rental prices adjusting in response to inventory shifts and tenant preferences.

The March 2025 edition of the MarketTracker Bay Area report, presented by Charlie Brown of Kinoko Real Estate, provides an in-depth analysis of national and local real estate trends.

National Overview: Despite lower interest rates than last year, affordability remains a significant challenge for homebuyers, with mortgage payments exceeding $2,100 per month. However, inventory levels are improving, as new listings surged by 4.21% year-over-year in February, easing some supply constraints.

Bay Area Trends: The local market remains dynamic, with Silicon Valley and North Bay experiencing price growth, while East Bay prices stabilize due to increased inventory. San Francisco faces declining single-family home listings, though condo markets show buyer-friendly conditions. Demand remains strong for single-family homes, but condos in several areas face weaker competition.

Market Insights: Silicon Valley continues to be a seller’s market, with homes selling rapidly—Santa Clara listings last just eight days on average. Meanwhile, Napa and San Francisco’s condo market offer more opportunities for buyers. The East Bay sees a dramatic 40% rise in inventory, potentially shifting market conditions.

This report offers a comprehensive breakdown for buyers and sellers navigating the evolving Bay Area housing landscape.

San Francisco MarketTracker – February 2025

The San Francisco real estate market continues to experience shifts in pricing, inventory, and buyer demand. Mortgage rates have returned to pre-rate cut levels, signaling lender expectations of potential future rate hikes. Despite affordability concerns, home values continue to rise nationally, with median sale prices increasing 6.03% year-over-year.

Locally, San Francisco saw a notable price decline in January, with median single-family home prices falling 9.68% to $1,422,500 and condos dropping 8.76% to $990,000. However, single-family homes are still selling above asking, averaging 105% of list price.

Inventory remains tight despite more new listings, with active listings down 10.34% for single-family homes and 10.91% for condos compared to last year. This persistent shortage keeps San Francisco firmly in a sellers’ market, with just 1.1 months of supply for houses and 2.8 months for condos.

For buyers, competition remains fierce, but opportunities may emerge as affordability improves. Sellers still hold an advantage, particularly in the single-family market.

For deeper insights or assistance in navigating the market, contact Charlie Brown at (415) 722-3493.